US IT site ZDNet today announced the signature of Steven · Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols The article said that Microsoft Windows 8 and Vista have a lot in common: they are not expected to be upgraded, so they will fail.
The following is the full text of the article:
I have many friends who are loyal fans of Windows, and they are very much looking forward to Windows 8 released later this year. Others worry that Windows 8 will repeat the same mistakes of Vista. My opinion is: Windows 8 will suffer the same defeat as Vista.
I think that by 2016, there will be far more users using Windows 7 than Windows 8. Before explaining the reasons, I must first explain, although I chose Linux as the desktop operating system. But I see Windows 8 not because I am a professional Linux user or an anti-Microsoft person.
In fact, from a desktop operating system perspective, I prefer Windows 7. indeed so. In addition, the future failure of Windows 8 will not help Linux in the development of the desktop market. Looking back, when Vista was defeated, it caused an impact on the long-term development of desktop Linux. This is because the failure of Vista combined with the threat of netbooks has led to the resurgence of Microsoft Windows XP. If Windows 8 suffers the same fate, I am sure that Microsoft will extend the life of Windows 7.
So why is Windows 8 going to die? The reason is simple:
1. Desktop users don't need Windows 8
Quickly think about a problem: list a Windows 8 Unique, and the lack of features of Windows 7, excellent Linux systems (such as Mint) or Mac OS X? I can't think of it.
In fact, I can't think of any major improvement in Windows 8. Refresh the operating system? Quick start? Windows Store? Start with USB flash drive? Please, these other operating systems have these functions a few years ago, and the effect is very good. If you put them together, it should be considered a patch for Windows 7, but it is by no means a completely new operating system.
2, Metro: ugly useless interface
As we all know, Windows 8 uses a new default interface: Metro. But when I saw Metro, I thought it was colorful and bloated. It could only be run in a small box or in full screen, and it was impossible to adjust or move the window. The last time I saw this system came from? Wait, I think it is Windows 1.0!
More importantly, almost everyone knows the existing Windows interface. Although it has been changing, as long as you have used Windows 95 in the past, you can now adapt to Windows 7 very quickly. Metro? It's totally different. The fate is that Microsoft even gave up on the start button.
In short, even if Metro is a great innovation, users still need to complete the old task &mdash through the new interface; — let alone it is not. This is a failed idea in the moment. Of course, you can switch to the classic desktop experience, but why not just use the classic Windows XP or Windows 7 interface?
3. What is the Windows 8 application?
Windows 8 users The preview version will be released soon, but we still don't know anything about Windows 8 applications. Insiders pointed out that we don't even know if Office 15 will be compatible with Metro.
Windows 8 is likely to be released this fall, but we don’t know anything about its application? Don’t even know if Office is compatible? Please, how can they take this system seriously?
4, annoy Windows developers
If you are not satisfied with the application status of Metro, then think about poor Windows programmers. You have spent years learning .NET, WCF and WPF, and now you have to learn WinRT and Jupiter/XAML.
Developers who like WinRT say: "Now is a good time to participate in WinRT, because the platform is still in the early stages of development and requires a lot of developer support in order to develop more powerful tools. & rdquo; Really? This comment was released in January 2012, and the development tools are still missing.
Finally, Windows developers still need to rewrite Metro applications for more traditional Windows-style interfaces, as well as applications for both x86 and ARM platforms. There are too many jobs, and the staff is definitely not enough. In summary, I think that when Windows 8 is released, it is unlikely that too many mature applications will be ready.
Unfortunately, Windows Phone Developer Experience Director Brandon · Brandon Watson has just left Microsoft and moved to the Amazon Kindle team. He may know something?
This reminds me that if an operating system does not have the support of developers or applications, what will happen next? There is only one dead end.
5, the time to enter the smartphone and tablet market is too late
Of course, the real goal of Metro is not desktop users. This is Microsoft's last step into the smartphone and tablet market. If Microsoft really brings a real revolution to the mobile space, or can still force OEMs to pre-install Windows, I think they have a chance in the mobile space. but it is not the truth.
Smartphones are Android and iOS's "two-person turn", and tablets are Apple's "one-man show", Samsung, Amazon and Barnes & Noble are not currently posing for the iPad. challenge. Both Android and iOS are mature, have a large developer community, and are popular with users. If the smartphone is included, Apple will become the world's largest "PC" manufacturer with the success of the iPhone.
In addition, US mobile operators are also not interested in Windows Phone. The old-fashioned, slow-moving Microsoft was late in the mobile computing wave of the 2010s and could not have a major impact, which meant that Windows 8 Metro could not find its own audience. The market has not been able to accommodate a large third-party platform. Small platforms like KDE or Ubuntu can still survive, but Microsoft can't.
In addition, most Windows users have just switched from Windows XP to Windows 7 in November 2011. Microsoft now requires them to use a completely different interface, and there are not many applications. What will happen? Windows 8 can only see light death.
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